Abstract
The ‘rise of China' debate centres on the question of whether China is a revisionist rising power presenting a threat to regional and global security or a status quo rising power presenting an opportunity to regional and global security. However, the development of China is more nuanced and cannot be reduced to being an either-or, as there are different tendencies in the development of Chinese post-Cold War security policy that point to different developments of China as a great power.
The contingent rise of China. The development in Chinese post-Cold War security policy sets out to explore the conditions under which China has conducted certain security behaviour in order to understand and explain the different tendencies in the development of Chinese post-Cold War security policy. To accomplish this, a contingent realist argument about the development of the security policy of a rising power under unipolarity is constructed and subsequently applied in an analysis of Chinese post-Cold War security policy conducting two case studies on the Chinese security behaviour in the Taiwan Strait Crisis 1995-96 and China's Six Party Talks Initiative 2003, respectively.
The contingent rise of China demonstrates how the different tendencies in the development of Chinese post-Cold War security policy develop in response to assessments made by the Chinese leaders of the potential implications of the developments of the security relations between the states involved in concrete cases for China's strategic vulnerability and the ability of Chinese leaders to preserve and improve China's security position and interests in Asia. It is also demonstrated how domestic political concerns of the Chinese leaders about delivering on the economic interests and popular nationalist demands in Chinese society systematically influence the development in Chinese post-Cold War security policy.
On a more overall level, The contingent rise of China demonstrates how the more recent developments within the realist research program in the field of International Relations provide a valuable point of departure for engagement between generalists and area specialists. Such engagement is necessary in order to improve the understanding and explanation of the development of Chinese post-Cold War security policy.