Abstract
Intensified great power rivalry between China and the U.S., ongoing regional power transition and militarisation following the “Rise of China”, continued historical mistrust and territorial disputes, heightened security competition between China and Japan, and the still unsolved security conflicts on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait – these are all reasons for a rather pessimistic view of whether a Northeast Asian multilateral security mechanism is ever possible. Developments in the security situation in Northeast Asia in recent years have however also underlined the need for – and the common strategic interest in – a regional multilateral security mechanism. Arguing that in order to promote long-term stability in Northeast Asia, it is expedient to work towards developing a regional multilateral security mechanism, this article explores the future prospects focusing on the most difficult questions confronting the regional states. Especially highlighted are questions of whether to focus firstly on reaching a solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis, whether to include North Korea in Northeast Asian security multilateralism from the beginning, the role of the U.S. and U.S. bilateral alliances in Northeast Asian security multilateralism, who to lead security multilateralism in Northeast Asia, and the implications of broader East Asian political and security multilateralism for security multilateralism in Northeast Asia. The article concludes that while there remain serious and difficult obstacles and challenges, there are also positive trends, which the development of a Northeast Asian multilateral security mechanism could further build on. These include a higher level of diplomatic interaction between regional states, an increased spread of a narrow form of problem-specific security multilateralism in the region as well as a strengthening of a broader East Asian political and security multilateralism that includes most of the Northeast Asian states.