Abstract
How can the Realm of Denmark navigate in a future struggle between great powers in the Arctic?
Climate changes and increasing power struggle in the Arctic provide new challenges for the Danish Realm and its Allies in the Arctic. The new challenges place tremendous pressure on the small Realm, trapped in a power struggle between Russia and the US. Both great powers seek security in the ever changing region, creating a potential security dilemma. Open conflict in the Arctic may prove to be counterproductive for both nations – and naturally to The Danish Realm, Denmark, Greenland and The Faroe Islands.
Relevant official strategy publications from both nations prove that both are wary of the other, pressure building on Denmark, as small states have little influence in a security dilemma between great powers.
The aim of this paper is to identify how a small state can navigate in an expanding security dilemma, and how an increased Arctic presence from the Realm of Denmark might alleviate tension in the Arctic region.
In order to answer the research question I believe it necessary to perform an analysis of each main actor in the Arctic region and their overall strategies and concerns in the Arctic. The analysis demonstrates major challenges for the small Kingdom, especially in terms of becoming irrelevant in the security dilemma. The analysis, however, also demonstrates advantages to be gained from all parties, can the Kingdom enhance its presence in the Arctic. A small state is considered less dangerous and so can provide opportunities for diplomacy and rule-based behavior in the Arctic.
The paper concludes that the Realm, as a small state, may alleviate the Arctic security dilemma, if a surveillance oriented military presence in the Arctic is prioritized, the future in the Arctic nevertheless remaining uncertain.
The paper provides opportunities and recommendations for further and more technical research, in order to accurately determine which capabilities and strategies the Realm of Denmark might pursue in an unstable future in the Arctic.