Publikationsliste
Film
Five lessons about warfare from Ukraine
Udgivet 20/12/2022
What can we learn about conventional warfare from the war in Ukraine? I look at five suggestions from a recent RUSI report.
Film
How is the war going? - Mid-December 2022
Udgivet 11/12/2022
An update on the frontlines in Ukraine. The mud season is coming to an end, and the winter is about to begin.
Film
Russia still hopes for a quick victory
Udgivet 02/12/2022
Is Russia preparing for a long war or a quick win in Ukraine? Many analysts predict that Russia wants to drag out the war to win in the long run. But their current actions don't support this idea, and it rather looks like Putin is still hoping for a quick victory during the winter.
Film
Ukraine's paradox about peace negotiations
Udgivet 29/11/2022
I discuss why the West is talking about peace negotiations when it looks totally unrealistic, and the balancing act that Zelensky has to perform between signalling opposite things to Russia and the West.
Film
After Kherson: What's next in the war?
Udgivet 12/11/2022
Russia has retreated from Kherson, but the war is far from over. There is no reason to believing that peace is around the corner. But we are moving into a new phase of the war, and in this video I look at what that might mean. And then I look at what's at stake for Russia's general Surovikin, because there will hardly be tolerance for more losses on his watch.
Film
Grain deal stand-off shows that Russia is weak
Udgivet 05/11/2022
Russia's weird tango with the grain deal after the Ukrainian attack on warships in Sevastopol is interesting. It looks like Russia lost a diplomatic stand-off with Turkey and realized that they don't have the naval power to enforce a blockade on Odesa.
Film
Udgivet 26/10/2022
How is the winter going to influence the war? Military operations will be more complicated, but not impossible. In this video I look at what Russia and Ukraine would like to get out of the cold season.
Film
The Russian war narrative after mobilization
Udgivet 20/10/2022
I look at how Putin's explanation about the war has changed after mobilization. Surprisingly, it hasn't changed as much as one might expect. It is still a balancing act between pleasing the ultranationalists and comforting the population.
Film
How is the war going? - Mid-October 2022
Udgivet 12/10/2022
An update on the frontlines in Ukraine. I look at Russia's many dilemmas and the bombing of the Kerch Strait Bridge.
Film
Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe
Udgivet 04/10/2022
Analysis of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. I use Kilcullen's theory about liminal warfare and prospect theory to analyse the operational design.
This shows that Russia is the most likely suspect, because all other actors would have made different operational choices.
I then give some pretty depressing perspectives on how Russia might use hybrid warfare against Europe.