Hüseyin Yücel

I 2020 og 2021 blev flere danske fragtskibe angrebet af pirater i Guineabugten på Afrikas vestkyst. For at sikre den frie handel på verdenshavene sendte den danske regering i oktober 2021 fregatten Esbern Snare til Guineabugten. Her skulle den patruljere og sikre, at piraterne ikke havde held til at kapre skibe eller bortføre besætningsmedlemmer.

At planlægge og gennemføre en militær mission, der finder sted 4.700 sømil (8.700 kilometer) fra danske farvande, er ikke uden udfordringer. Indsatsen mod pirateriet foregik i krydsfeltet mellem Udenrigs- og Forsvarsministeriet og Forsvarskommandoen i København, Søværnskommandoen i Karup og mandskabet på Esbern Snare. Denne bog beskriver det til tider komplicerede forløb, som ligger bag en moderne flådemissions tilblivelse og udførelse.

Bogen tager sit udgangspunkt i historien om den antipirateri-indsats, som Søværnet var involveret i ved Afrikas Horn 2008-2015, idet erfaringerne herfra spillede ind på planlægningen og udførelsen af missionen i Guineabugten i 2021-22. Missionen i Guineabugten havde sit dramatiske højdepunkt den 24. november 2021. Her endte danske styrker i skududveksling med lokale pirater, hvilket kostede fem formodede pirater livet. Bogen dækker også denne episode samt det efterfølgende juridiske forløb.

Piratjagt. Det danske Søværns kamp mod pirateriet ved Afrika 2008-2022 er baseret på et stort antal interviews med officerer, befalingsmænd, gaster, politikere, embedsmænd, selv-identificerende pirater og med regionale partnere, som på forskellig vis var involveret i indsatsen ved Afrikas Horn 2008-2015 eller Esbern Snares togt i 2021-2022. Den er illustreret med over 150 fotografier, tegninger og kort, hvoraf hovedparten ikke tidligere har været offentliggjort.

Det er nødvendigt, at de europæiske lande ikke forblændes af krigen i Ukraine og derved mister fokus på andre udfordringer – herunder Vestafrika. Mister vi fokus, og formår vi ikke at redefinere vores indsats i Vestafrika, vil Rusland utvivlsomt udnytte dette vakuum til at øge presset på Vesten ved hjælp af flygtningestrømme, givetvis tilsat en større terrortrussel og intensiverede misinformationskampagner.

Based on the worrying development of blue crime in the Gulf of Guinea, this paper examines transnational cooperation in the Yaoundé Architecture and ways to strengthen it. It argues that the Architecture consists of independent states that are hesitant to delegate sovereignty but forced to cooperate because blue crime is inherently transnational and therefore requires transnational responses. For these reasons, the Architecture resembles a network with independent participants, who must cooperate to achieve a common goal, and structural and social control elements meant to overcome coordination problems. Nevertheless, these elements need improving to strengthen cooperation in the Architecture, and by extension, efforts in fighting blue crime. The paper suggests ways in which the Architecture can be strengthened by including commercial actors and international partners in the network, streamlining the roles of structural elements, ensuring a better exchange of information, and implementing agreed measures. This paper is relevant to scholars and practitioners interested in the Yaoundé Architecture and maritime security responses in the Gulf of Guinea.

I snart to årtier har Danmark være engageret i Afghanistan. De seneste fem år har den danske indsats fokuseret på kapacitetsopbygning af de afghanske sikkerhedsstyrker. Derfor har en vigtig del af det danske bidrag bestået af mentorer og rådgivere, som har assisteret forskellige institutioner og dele af den afghanske hær.Briefet ser nærmere på erfaringerne fra disse mentorer og rådgivere og fremsætter konkrete forslag til, hvordan disse kan anvendes i fremtiden – både i Afghanistan og andre konfliktzoner.

This report defines the concept of Facilitated Dialogue that aims at contributing to stabilisation by promoting cooperation between states (and non-state groups). The report formulates programme theories for two distinct levels within the concept. The institutional level focuses on creating institutional cooperation, whereas the individual level emphasises social interaction between influential individuals as ways in which cooperation between states (and non-state groups) can be encouraged. The programme theories, based on experience and inspired by the concepts of Track II and Track 1.5 diplomacy, are meant as a template for future projects as well as a benchmarkfor evaluation of current and past projects.

This policy brief analyses the politics and priorities of actors in and around Afghanistan. First, it examines the breakdown in the Doha talks, initial progress made in the so-called intra-Afghan talks, and the near future paths of action of both the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. The second half revolves around the strategic considerations and political redlines of Afghanistan’s most important neighbours, Pakistan and Iran. Understanding vital security interests – the so-called redlines – of Iran and Pakistan is necessary in order to recognise both the developments in Afghanistan and the limitations of a future peace deal in Afghanistan. This brief attempts to contribute to this understanding. It is based on current reporting from sources and media in Afghanistan and insights gathered from numerous meetings in Kabul between 8 and 10 July 2019. The brief is written for officials, scholars and journalists working on Afghanistan, and it concludes that a breakthrough has not and will likely not occur for the time being – understanding the reasons why provides valuable lessons for future peace initiatives.

The political and military situation in Afghanistan remains fragile, and major transformations will likely take place within the coming months. The U.S.-Taliban talks in Doha, the potential for a sudden U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the upcoming presidential election in Afghanistan, the controversial expansion of President Ghani’s tenure/mandate and political opposition to this, and a continued weakening of the Afghan National Army (ANA) are the most evident examples of developments that will likely alter Afghanistan’s political landscape in the near future.