Hüseyin Yücel

I snart to årtier har Danmark være engageret i Afghanistan. De seneste fem år har den danske indsats fokuseret på kapacitetsopbygning af de afghanske sikkerhedsstyrker. Derfor har en vigtig del af det danske bidrag bestået af mentorer og rådgivere, som har assisteret forskellige institutioner og dele af den afghanske hær.Briefet ser nærmere på erfaringerne fra disse mentorer og rådgivere og fremsætter konkrete forslag til, hvordan disse kan anvendes i fremtiden – både i Afghanistan og andre konfliktzoner.

This policy brief analyses the politics and priorities of actors in and around Afghanistan. First, it examines the breakdown in the Doha talks, initial progress made in the so-called intra-Afghan talks, and the near future paths of action of both the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. The second half revolves around the strategic considerations and political redlines of Afghanistan’s most important neighbours, Pakistan and Iran. Understanding vital security interests – the so-called redlines – of Iran and Pakistan is necessary in order to recognise both the developments in Afghanistan and the limitations of a future peace deal in Afghanistan. This brief attempts to contribute to this understanding. It is based on current reporting from sources and media in Afghanistan and insights gathered from numerous meetings in Kabul between 8 and 10 July 2019. The brief is written for officials, scholars and journalists working on Afghanistan, and it concludes that a breakthrough has not and will likely not occur for the time being – understanding the reasons why provides valuable lessons for future peace initiatives.

The political and military situation in Afghanistan remains fragile, and major transformations will likely take place within the coming months. The U.S.-Taliban talks in Doha, the potential for a sudden U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the upcoming presidential election in Afghanistan, the controversial expansion of President Ghani’s tenure/mandate and political opposition to this, and a continued weakening of the Afghan National Army (ANA) are the most evident examples of developments that will likely alter Afghanistan’s political landscape in the near future.