Peter Viggo Jakobsen

Building Baltic Consensus.

Præsentation ved  EESC webinar om den nye situation i Østersøen og behovet for at NATOs Østersøstater enes om en fælles strategi for at håndtere Finland og Sveriges indtræden i NATO. Min hovedpointe var at NATOs Østersølande nu skal til at tage højde for at NATO nu bliver så stærk at Rusland kan frygte et overraskelsesangreb fra NATO. NATO skal derfor designe sin forsvarsstrategi og sin afskrækkelse, således at den ikke aktiverer sikkerhedsdilemmaet og giver Rusland incitament til at slå først i en krisesituation, fordi Moskva fejlagtigt antager, at NATO vil angribe.

Timeline 

Part 1 (1h30) 

• General set up, feedback on workshop #1 

• Line up: Scenario – Phase I 

• Individual time: online questionnaire 

• Group work in break-out sessions Virtual " coffee break " (15 min) 

Part 2 (2h) 

• Plenary session: reporting Phase I group work and Q&A 

• Line up: Scenario – Phase II 

• Individual time: online questionnaire 

• Group work in break-out sessions 

• Plenary session: reporting Phase II group work, Q&A, conclusion

Timeline 

Part 1 (2h) 

• General set up 

• Line up: Scenario – Phase I 

• Individual time: online questionnaire 

• Group work in break-out sessions  

Part 2 (1h45) 

• Plenary session: reporting Phase I group work and Q&A 

• Line up: Scenario – Phase II 

• Individual time: online questionnaire 

• Group work in break-out sessions 

• Plenary session: reporting Phase II group work, Q&A, conclusion

Around a month ago, FOI and the Northern European and Transatlantic Security Programme published our triennial aggregate analysis of the military strategic situation in Northern Europe, for news and reports see https://www.foi.se/en/foi/news-and-pressroom/news/2021-03-11-defence-efforts-in-northern-europe-should-focus-on-the-near-term.html . In the 2020 study of Western military capability in Northern Europe, our wish was to perform a first cut net assessment of the force balance between the West and Russia. The aim is to identify the important characteristics of the force balance with respect to relative strengths and weaknesses. The assessment leads us to a number of conclusions for the Western defence of Northern Europe.

Now, of course the efforts to improve our knowledge and understanding of Western collective defence do not end here – we are only too eager to learn more. To that end we would like to invite you personally to a webinar with a small group of peers, hopefully 10-12 individuals, under Chatham House Rule, in order to discuss our findings and some of the many issues which merit further study. See below for invitation list. On our side the core element of the Western team, i.e. Eva Hagström Frisell, Robert Dalsjö and myself, will take part.

We are planning a 2-hour event via Skype on Thursday 6 May at 1500-1700hrs (UTC+2/Central European Summertime). The discussions will be broken up in three themes or sections of up to 40 minutes each:

·      The changing security landscape and Western cohesion

·      Western preparations for collective defence of Northern Europe

·      Comparisons of Western and Russian military capability

The participants are expected to be familiar with our report, attached above, beforehand. Thus we will focus on exchange and each theme will be started with a very brief introduction (<2 minutes) from us followed by some prepared comments (<5 minutes) from one of you invited peers and then we open up the floor for everybody to contribute.

Invitation list:

·      Dr. Corentin Brustlein

·      Director/Dr Chris Donnelly

·      Dep Director Rachel Ellehuus

·      Dr. Gustav Gressel

·      Prof. Francois Heisbourg

·      Lieutenant General (Retd.) Ben Hodges

·      Mr Edward Lucas

·      Dr. Håkon Lunde Saxi

·      Dr. Claudia Major

·      Defence Counsellor Rita Malauskiene

·      Major General Harri Oha-Ahro

·      Dr. Diego Ruiz Palmer

·      Dr. Peter Viggo Jakobsen

Ambassador Jonatan Vseviov